The Fall of the Phantom
Assets:
Economic Autumn 2008
By Peter Chojnowski, Ph.D.
Editor Note:
We are indebted to Dr. Peter Chojnowski who gives a brief, comprehensive
treatment of the seemingly impenetrable complexity of the current economic
chaos.
“When business in the United States underwent a mild
contraction…the Federal Reserve created more paper reserves in the hope of
forestalling any possible bank reserve shortage. The 'Fed' succeeded….but it
nearly destroyed the economies the world, in the process. The excess credit
which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market ---
triggering a fantastic speculative boom. Belatedly, Federal Reserve officials
attempted to sop up the excess reserves and finally succeeded in breaking the
boom. But it was too late….the speculative imbalances had become so overwhelming
that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and a consequent demoralizing
of business confidence. As a result, the American economy collapsed”
—
Alan Greenspan
![]() It is very difficult to directly quote Alan Greenspan and, thereby, clarify for the reader what the former chairman meant to convey. He is the one known for the statement, “If I have made myself clear, than you have misunderstood me. |
It is rather disconcerting to read
Alan Greenspan, grand economic Maestro
— as he was referred to by his fellows[1]
— and the man most responsible for the
American engagement in Operation Enduring Bubble, speak of “excess credit which
the Fed pumped into the economy,” resulting, finally, in an American economic
collapse. The collapse which Greenspan wrote of was, of course, the Great
Depression beginning in 1929 and extending, mostly, until 1941. This judgment
which Greenspan makes about the “excess credit” that directly brought about the
Great Depression was made in a 1966 article in Ayn Rand’s Objectivist magazine and subsequently republished in
What is so disconcerting about the
above quoted statement is that Alan Greenspan’s words apply as aptly to current
economic conditions as they did to the Roaring 20s, but with one major
difference. The difference is that as Federal Reserve chairman between 1987 and
2006, Greenspan acted even more irresponsibly than the Fed officials he was
criticizing. Rather than, “sopping up the excess reserves,” Greenspan added
even more, transforming a stock market bubble into a housing and consumer
spending bubble of historic and unprecedented proportions.[3]
It is these “bubbles” that have fed the speculative financial “bubble” that we
see deflating at a faster and faster pace every day in the news.
If it is our task to analyze this
speculative bubble of financial instruments that threaten to implode the
financial system upon which the Liberal Democratic world depends, we should
first mention the radical liberal capitalist ideology which seemingly justified
Alan Greenspan’s attempt to facilitate the emergence of a “New Economy” that
would complete capitalism by banishing “risk.”[4]
It seems as if it was the desire to
“complete capitalism” and his association with those who had the same
objective, rather than his technical abilities as an economist that propelled
Alan Greenspan to mastership over the global economy. Born in 1926 to a family
of Hungarian Jews in the Washington Heights area of New York City (apparently
the family originally had the German name Grünspan and simply Anglicized it),
young Allen began his career as a musician and performer, studying at The
Julliard School during WWII and becoming an accomplished clarinet and
saxophone; this led Greenspan to perform in a Jazz band while he was in college
at New York University.[5]
Having progressed through bachelor’s and master’s degrees in economics, in 1950
he went on to
It seems, however, that it was his
life long association with Ayn Rand, she always referred to Greenspan by the
retrospectively apt nick-name of “the Undertaker,”[8]
which made the career and the mind of Allan Greenspan. It will be the thesis of
this article, that it was from such a mind-set of Promethean Capitalism, that
our current economic crisis has its origin.
It was in Ayn Rand’s
The world system in which this view
of the New Egotist can take shape is that of laissez-faire Capitalism, which is, therefore, the ideal human
society. Lest we believe that this ideal capitalist society is anything but an
orderly human jungle, Rand reminds us that the fundamental right of human
beings is the right to life, by which
she means the “right to act in furtherance of one’s own life,” not “the right
to have one’s life protected, or to have one’s survival guaranteed, by the
involuntary effort of other human beings.”[14]
We can see the portents of this for the economic policy of the New Egotists.
The protective role of government defending the common good will be rejected with,
“a separation of state and economics, in the same way and for the same reasons
as the separation of state and church.” As you can see, all of the above is
simply another morphing of Enlightenment Liberalism.
The
Problem: Trillions of $ of Phantom Assets
Before we can understand how Alan
Greenspan helped to create the economic crisis that we now face in the global
economy, we need to identify what exactly the problem is that we are
collectively confronting. It has been stated by William McChesney Martin, who
served as Chairman of the Federal Reserve for 18 years spanning the
administrations from Truman through Nixon, that “The function of the Federal
Reserve is to take away the punch bowl just as the party is getting good”;
meaning, of course, that its purpose was to ease credit in hard times and
tighten it before expansions got frothy. The modus operandi for the
Greenspan regime at the Fed, from 1987 to 2006, however, was to keep refilling
the punch bowl until it was sure that the party was really underway.[15]
The
current economic problem is very simple to define but extremely difficult to grasp
properly. There are today approximately 10 Trillion fictitious US dollars
circulating on the planet which large banks are trying to get rid of at any
cost in order to limit their own losses. Even at a reduced price, however,
these assets remain dangerous traps because there is a very good chance that
they are not worth anything and will never recover any value. These are the
“ghost” or “phantom-assets” which are no longer capable of being embodied in real
assets.[16]
One very recent example of “phantom assets” that were recognized to be
worthless or near worthless is the case of National Australia Bank announcing,
on July 31, 2008, a 90% write down (the Australian paper The Age put the write down at 100%) in its $1.1 billion holdings of
What exactly are these “phantom
assets”? Most of them are made up of US mortgage loans, US dollars, and US
dollar-denominated assets, as well as British Pound Sterling denominated
assets. Much of the “reserves” in
The
Fed Primes the Pump: The Incredible Falling Interest Rates
Where did all these excess dollars
come from? According to the Libertarian “Monetarist” theory of Milton Friedman,
supposedly followed after the inauguration of Ronald Reagan’s “conservative”
administration, isn’t the money supply supposed to be closely tied to the
amount of growth in the economy, thereby controlling inflation?[19]
What all commentators agree upon is
the fact that under the fiscal regime of Chairman Greenspan, billions upon
billions of excess dollars were injected into the global economic system
causing the inflation of the Internet-stock “dot.com” bubble, an equity share
bubble, a housing bubble, and, finally, thanks to home-equity loans, a consumer
credit bubble. Every time one bubble was about to pop and prices return to more
realistic levels, meaning that some would
find that they did not have as much financial “value” as they thought,
Greenspan would lower interest rates thereby buoying up the buying
and credit frenzy by making more low interest loans available through
lower interest rates.
Since it is the stock market that
keeps the Capitalist credit economy funded, it was the most notable object of
Greenspan’s solicitous care. According to William Fleckenstein in his book, Greenspan’s Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at
the Federal Reserve, “The stock market bubble, fueled by wild enthusiasm
for technology and especially Internet stocks, explodes higher…Greenspan has
brought
The nature of this “liquidity
injection,” always, of course, taking the form of loans that need to be paid
back — with interest — are simple historical facts; from February 1996 to
October 1999, the Federal Reserve expanded the money supply by about $ 1.6
trillion or 20% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product or the total amount of “economic
transactions” taking place within the nation). Added to this “printing of
money” to solve financial distress or the possibility of financial distress,
Greenspan’s Fed, from September 20th to November 10, 1999, expanded
the money supply by an estimated $147 billion, which figured as a 14% annual
increase. Added to this amount, there was the $50 billion extra that the Fed
introduced into the financial system in November and December of 1999, to help
tide the banks over any cash needs they might have arising from their
customer’s concerns over Y2K.[21]
The non-event of Y2K did not prevent Chairman Greenspan from cutting interest
rates further; in the year 2001, Chairman Greenspan cut rates at every single
meeting of the FOMC (i.e., the Federal Open Market Committee, which the Fed’s
website defines as “the monetary policy making body of the Federal Reserve
System”) during the entire year. Add
to this the three interest rate reductions during the three emergency meetings
of the FOMC and you have a total of eleven
rate cuts for 2001.[22]
By year end, the Fed funds rate (i.e., the interest rates the banks will pay
for funds and charge for loans) would stand at just 1.75%, a whopping 76% lower
than the 6.5% it fetched when the year began.[23]
The
New Economic Paradigm: Win/Win Capitalism
We cannot speak of Greenspan’s New
Economy or New Economic Paradigm without mentioning the context in which the
idea began to be implemented. The 90s, after the breakup of the
It
is very difficult to directly quote Alan Greenspan and, thereby, clarify for
the reader what the former chairman meant to convey. He, after all, is the one
known for the statement, “If I have made myself clear, than you have
misunderstood me.”[25]
The New Economy thesis, however, can be seen to emerge in Chairman Greenspan’s
statement to the August 1995 meeting of the FOMC. At this meeting, he justified
the unprecedented surge that was going on in the stock market, by citing the
increase in technology-facilitated productivity that made for greater business
profits. Because of the surge in computer and Internet generated productivity, stocks were actually much cheaper than
generally understood. As Chairman Greenspan stated to the FOMC, “There is a
major statistical problem. We are all acutely aware that there has been a shift
towards an increasingly conceptual and impalpable value added and that actual
GDP [Gross Domestic Product, or as the wits would have it, “Gross Data
Padding”] in constant dollars is becoming progressively less visible.
![]() The
"New Economy" created a "Financial Economy"
1000x worth the real economy |
All of these intellectual services
have historically been written off as expenses in income statements....We are
moving towards an economy in which the value added is increasingly software,
telecommunication technologies….So we are getting increasing evidence that we
are probably expensing items that really should be capitalized.”[26]
In other words, stock prices have a right to go much higher because their
companies are counting as expenses
(e.g., software, technology, etc.) what should be counted as assets. This “irrational exuberance” on
the part of Greenspan incited the largest stock market rally that the
The
Abolition of Risk…For Some
The
key to understand the New Economy, initiated by Alan Greenspan and the
governmental and financial powers of the United States is that it was meant to
be an economy in which risk, through the promise of government and Federal
Reserve intervention, along with mathematically sophisticated financial
instruments that are meant to “hedge” speculative investments, is eliminated.
We can loan and speculate without fear of real loss. This is the idea of the
New Economy, which is now showing itself to be the phantom or illusion that it
always was.
What
we must be attentive to, however, is that the New Economy was meant to eliminate risk for the banks and
stock brokerages;[30]
it most certainly does not eliminate risk for the borrower and the
non-corporate and non-institutional investor (i.e., the average American). In
fact, it seems as if the “new economy” is specifically designed to entrap the
gullible, the vulnerable, or the financially desperate into a debt spiral that
has no end. Examples of this are in our newspapers every day. Of course,
the manipulators of credit are not going to advertise their “financial
products” as credit sink holes out of which few people emerge. Man is always
attracted to what he sees as a “good,” therefore, there is always something
initially appealing about loans that are going to put a limited income
individual in a financially risky situation.
If we look at the new mortgages the
situation be becomes clear. Three types of the “new mortgage” are of particular
interest. There are the general ARMs or adjustable
rate mortgages. Here, risk is not eliminated but just transferred ---
perhaps this is the best way to characterize the entire “New Economy.” In this
case the risk of rising interest rates, which in a traditional fixed-rate mortgage is a risk the lender
takes, is transferred to the home buyer. What the homeowner gets in exchange
for taking the risk is a rate initially lower than the going fixed rate (i.e.,
the attractive “good”). Therefore, at intervals ranging from one to 10 years,
the rate is reset to reflect prevailing levels. The initial rate, which has
been as low as 1% is sometimes called a “teaser” rate, the implications being
obvious: When a person is aiming to get the biggest house possible for the
lowest monthly payment, the house appears affordable. When inflation or foreign
investors losing confidence in the dollar force cause interest rates to rise,
ARM payments will skyrocket.
Two other “new mortgages” that
appear to be the best of all possible worlds for the banker are what are called interest-only loans and negative
amortization ARM loans. Here the homeowner takes on all the liabilities of
homeownership but gets none of the benefits. Interest-only loan payments
consist only of interest payments for the first few years. That minimizes the
payment initially, but when the initial period is up, perhaps in 5 years, the
rate is reset, presumably higher and now the borrower has to start repaying the
principal. What started, however, as a 30 year period of amortization has
become a 25 year period --- 30 years of payments in 25 years. All of it makes
for much higher payments.
Finally,
a variation of the ARM is the Negative Amortization ARM. With this type of new
loan, the home “owner” makes a minimum monthly payment with the difference
between what you actually pay and the actual scheduled payment added to the
balance of the mortgage. Since none of the payments on such loans reduce the
principal of the mortgages, the buyers who have these mortgages properties are
no better off than renters. They must pay property taxes, insurance, and
maintenance; they actually get the worst of all worlds. They de facto rent property from lenders and,
yet, get stuck with all the burdens of ownership.[31]
This “mortgage revolution,” which
really began in earnest in the year 2003, is the primary cause of the credit bubble currently popping. How large
is this credit bubble. During the years 2003 through 2005, outstanding American
mortgage debt grew by $3.7 trillion – an
amount almost equal to the $3.8 trillion of total outstanding mortgage debt
from the founding of the
Derivatives,
CMOs, and Collateralized Debt Obligations: Financial WMDs
Speaking of derivatives, CMOs
(collateralized mortgage obligations) and Credit Default Swaps as financial
WMDs (i.e., weapons of mass destruction) was not this present writer’s idea. It
comes from none other than Warren Buffet, “the Oracle of Omaha” known for his
legendary stock picking skills, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway investment fund,
and the third richest man in the world. Buffet’s complaint about derivatives
contracts was that they had hidden losses that would eventually emerge to
implode the financial system.[35]
On the other hand, we have our harbinger of the New Capitalist Age, Chairman
Greenspan taking the contrary position on the question of derivatives, “By far
the most significant event of finance during the past decade has been the
extraordinary development of financial derivatives….Should they succeed I am
quite confident that market participants will continue to increase their
reliance on derivatives to unbundled risks and thereby enhance the process of
wealth creation.”[36]
Derivatives, CMOs (collateralized
mortgage obligations), and Credit-Default Swaps are ways in which bankers try
to eliminate what everyone always thought was part of speculative investments
--- risk of financial loss. The CMOs
or (Collateralized Mortgage Obligations), launched in the 80s in the newly deregulated
financial markets, are one of the most obvious examples of an attempt to
eliminate speculative financial risk. Whereas before CMOs, the risk of a
mortgage holder defaulting on his loan was taken by the bank issuing the loan,
hence there would be great concern to issue loans only to credit-worthy
borrowers, the CMO allowed mortgages to be bought up by thinly capitalized
mortgage banks (thereby allowing the mortgage-issuing bank to collect its fees
and eliminate all of its
risk), collected, packaged into CMOs (this
is the process that is called “securitization”) and then sold off on the
secondary mortgage market. Since investors would take on the risk of covering
for any defaults that occurred within the “package” of mortgages, the CMO
issuing bank would also be relatively “risk-free.” Moreover, the investors were
told that the investment was relatively risk-free because the junk bonds
(issued from subprime mortgages, etc.) that were more risky were stabilized by
being included with AAA quality bonds that were based on more trust-worthy and
secure mortgages. This is called “tranching” of the mortgage package.
The same “packaging” of debt with
the varied quality of issued bonds goes on with credit card debt, student loan
debt, car loans, etc. These varied “packaged” (securitized) loans are called
CDOs, collateralized debt obligations – they are debt packages that are made
into securities.[37]
According to financial trader and derivative specialist Satyajit Das, “CDO
tranching is the black art of dissimulation. Investors are told that they are
getting access to a ‘diversified’ portfolio of credit risk and are promised
highly customized credit risk. It is a very clever ‘spin’.”[38]
Here everything seems fine for the investors --- which include insurance
companies, pension funds, and retirement plans --- while there are low default
rates. When times get hard and rates go up and the risky mortgagee or credit
hard holder defaults or falls behind in payments, then the “speculative bonds”
upon which our virtual “wealth” is based suddenly appears more like worthless
“junk.” The problem for the whole globe is, however, that the main investors in
these CMOs and CDOs are top investment banks that stake much of their
profitability on these types of financial instruments. Also, many businesses
finance their operations through the sale of these types of “junk” or
speculative-grade bonds. If the investment banks no longer will buy them,
businesses will have to cut back and might be forced into bankruptcy.
Presently, at least in
In the whole world of the New
Economy, a capitalist economy which attempts to banish risk, perhaps the
financial instrument most difficult to “imagine” or even conceptualize is the
“derivative.” Derivatives are not assets in themselves, but claims upon
financial instruments. They are “bets” upon whether an asset will go up or down
in price. Since derivatives are “off balance sheet” and are traded in private
transactions and not in markets, no one knows exactly how much value these
derivatives have. They allow investors to simulate an investment without
actually owning anything. They simply are one way of tapping into the money
flowing through financial markets. A derivative “swap” is where two parties
agree to exchange “cash flows.” One bank would take on the risk of covering for
loans in default in exchange for the interest payments on the loans and fees.
The other bank would still service the loan and hold the mortgage.[40]
Other forms of derivatives are
attempts to “hedge” investments or transferring risk by taking the opposite
position in the underlying asset. For example, you can buy or “go long” on a steel company stock that you like
but hedge the risk by “shorting” or betting against another steel stock you
thought was weaker. If all steel stocks fell for some reason, the profits on
the short position would off-set the loss on your long position. Your might
also buy a “put” option, which would allow you to sell the equity or commodity
in the future for a fixed price. If the price of the stock should go down, you
would sell at a higher rate than the going price. The Greenspan “Put” was then
the ability of stock brokers to have stocks go down but with the knowledge that
they would be bailed out, by the Fed or the
What is intimidating about financial
derivatives is how much the financial world has come to depend upon this
“betting” and “swapping” in order to finance itself and, of course, the rest of
the global economy. The IMF, in July 2007, estimated that financial derivatives
had a notional value of $516 trillion. This is more than 10x higher than total
global GDP. You are literally speaking of an inverted financial pyramid with a
huge wedge of derivative claims standing on a small base of actual assets. With
derivative values in the $500 trillion range, rapid swings of $3 trillion to
$10 trillion in derivative values are altogether plausible and could inflict
enormous damage to the global economy.[41]
According to LEAP/Europe 2020, this would simply be the inevitable consequence
of the “miracle” of the new finance or the “New Economy” which was permitted to
create a “financial economy” 1,000x worth the real economy.[42]
We have an invisible, intangible mountain of debt and “claims” standing over concrete
human productive reality.
America
2008: Going Once…
There
are serious life-changing consequences in store for an
Then there is the recent story of
Beatrice Brenann. This 88 year old lady from
[1] Cf. Bob
Woodward, Maestro: Greenspan’s Fed and
the American Economy.
[2] Alan
Greenspan, “Gold and Economic Freedom” in Ayn Rand’s Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal (New York: Penguin, 1987), pp. 20ff.
[3] Peter
Schiff, Crash Proof: How to Profit from
the Coming Economic Collapse (
[4] Ibid.
[5] Barbara
Hagenbaugh, “The Alan Greenspan Project rocks on” in USA Today,
[6] Cf. Barron’s, “Dr. Greenspan’s Amazing
Invisible Thesis” (2008).
[7] Stephen
Ambrose, Nixon: The Triumph of a
Politician, 1962-1972 (1989), p. 136.
[8]
Wikipedia, “Alan Greenspan,” retrieved
[9]
Wikipedia, “Ayn Rand, retrieved
[10] Ayn
Rand, Introduction to Objectivist
Epistemology (New York: Meridian, 1990), pp. 1ff.
[11] Leonard
Peikoff, Objectivisim: The Philosophy of
Ayn Rand (New York, Meridian, 1993), pp. 20ff.
[12] Allan
Gotthelf, On Ayn Rand (
[13]
[14]
Wikipedia, “Ayn Rand,” retrieved
[15] Charles
Morris, The Trillion Dollar Meltdown:
Easy Money, High Rollers, and the Great Credit Crunch (
[16] Cf.
“Banks: Bleeding value and Hiding Desperation” in Financial Sense,
[17] Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard, “
[18] Yalman
Onaran, “Banks’ Subprime Losses Top $500 Billion on Writedowns,” Bloomberg,
[20] William
Fleckenstein, Greenspan’s Bubbles: The
Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve (
[21] Ibid.
[22] Ibid,
p. 120.
[23] Ibid.
[24] Ibid.,
pp. 27-43.
[25]
Satyajit Das, Traders, Guns & Money:
Known and unknowns in the dazzling world of derivatives (
[26]
Fleckenstein, pp. 31-32.
[27] Ibid.,
p. 27.
[28] Ibid.,
p. 20.
[29] Schiff,
p. 31.
[30]
Fleckenstein, p. 51.
[31] Schiff,
pp. 127-129.
[32]
Fleckenstein, pp. 158-159.
[33] Cf.
Bloomberg,
[34] James
Quinn, “Americans need radical surgery to revive country’s economy” in the Telegraph,
[35] Das,
pp. 4-5.
[36] Ibid.,
pp. 19-20.
[37] Morris,
pp. 39-41.
[38] Das, p.
287.
[39] Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard, “
[40] Das,
pp. 271-273.
[41] Morris,
pp. 134-136.
[42]
LEAP/Europe 2020,
[43] Teri
Buhl, “Lost Sovereignty” in the
[44]
See also:
• An Interview
with Dr. Chojnwoski on Economic Meltdown - Oct 11, 2008
• Dr. Chojnowski's July 2008 CFN article: “America Foreclosed: The 500 Trillion Dollar Debt Bubble Pops”
• Conference on "The New World Order and the Economic Collapose"
From
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